Monday, 25 January 2016
While Turkey holds a snap election on Sunday, many of people around me, and on social media, expect a decline in supports of AKP since last June election, aftermath of bloody four months. However, it’s necessary to remind latest respected opinion polls indicated ruling party is not losing ground. In fact, as average of independent and successful firms which I follow closely, suggest AKP’s support soaring closed to 43–44% levels. For holding majority in the parliament, at least 44% need to be taken, considering pro-Kurdish HDP will be above the threshold. Hence, I still find substantial probability of a single party ruling result of this election. If not, a gain in AKP’s vote will be inevitable.
Gezici, known as a pro-opposition research firm, predicts Akp’s vote may increase to 43%. In its latest opinion poll of Gezici, they underline the impacts of Ankara explosion and how nationalist votes turned back to AKP, later on the bloody event. It was a turning point for me to see Gezici’s generous prediction, as its happening first time I’ve caught.
Another independent research firm which was utterly successful to predict last elections, Andy AR, indicates that AKP will miss, if so, the majority in parliament by a nose, and will reach 43.7% of total votes.
Konda, research firm works with its private clients directly, published its latest on October 29, and points AKP slightly above of June level, 41.7%.
So it will be useful to bear in mind that, AKP is less likely to break down of 40% with upcoming election. Given that, as a result of combining five (Konda, Andy AR, Gezici, Metropoll and A&G) opinion polls, I found only few seats will be missed to hold majority in the parliament, which will be a shock for many people. Average of these five polls refers more than 2% increase in AKP support to 43.8% since June.
It is now another appropriate time to remind of how important to vote and keep turnout high.
In final, I believe that Sunday election in Turkey will be a surprising one. AKP’s lost popularity throughout the summer now back to track and rising in last one month, right after bloody terror attack in Ankara. Erupted terror attacks national wild consolidated AKP’s support as polls suggest. For not being surprised, get ready for surprising results of Sunday elections